X Value

The X value this article discusses is much more interesting than the value of x you solved for in 8^th grade pre-algebra. This X value pertains to something that you actually care about -- winning your fantasy football league. So, you ask, “What does solving an algebra equation have to do with fantasy football, let alone winning my fantasy league?” Well, the answer is that at its roots, fantasy football is a game of statistics. In order to be successful you must understand your league scoring, be able to measure and derive relative value from those statistics, and use your understanding and ability to your advantage against your league mates. In other words, as unpleasant as it may sound, in order to be an elite fantasy player you are going to have to crunch numbers more effectively and efficiently than your opponents.

Understanding Relative Value

Relative value can be used in many different contexts; Chad Johnson is better than Andre Johnson who is better than Joey Galloway who is better than Eddie Kennison. A casual football fan may know this, but for a fantasy player a pertinent question remains – how much better? That is where the X Value comes into play. What the X Value does is quantify “how much better” Chad is than Andre, Andre is than Joey, and Joey is than Eddie in a comparable number – that way, not only can we see how much better Chad is than Andre, we can also see how much better Chad is than Joey and Eddie. But the X value goes a step beyond just being able to quantify the relative difference between players at the same position; it makes players comparable across positions! The significance of this revelation cannot be understated. Who do you to take with your 2^nd round pick if, Maurice Jones Drew, Peyton Manning or Chad Johnson are on the board? Depending on your league, this could be a difficult decision. The X Value takes your league setup and scoring into account, and indicates what player has the most value regardless of position – you have numbers to back your decision up. At what point in the rankings does the value of the #1 WR outweigh a RB’s value - The 8^th RB, 9^th RB, 10^th, 12^th? Most fantasy owners take a guess, but the X value takes the guess-work out of play, and makes it easy to see where drop offs in talent occur. This is the cornerstone of Value Based Drafting (VBD).

Projecting Stats

Now that your interest is piqued, let me give you the bad news. Step 1 for calculating X values is to project 2007 stats for every NFL skills position player. That’s right, every QB, RB, WR, and TE in the league – including rookies. Some experts even project stats for kickers and defenses, but I’m not going to make you do that. Unless your league has unusual scoring rules regarding kickers and defenses, you can usually wait until the end of a draft to get them, especially a kicker. Now, there are many ways to go about projecting stats, but let me warn you - they’re all time consuming. All but one method that is - FFAll-Stars.com will project stats, including X values, and offer updates throughout the off-season, just for you! Just look for the projections tabs at the bottom of this article, and future projection articles. Aside: ffall-stars.com is working on an online application that will allow you to input your scoring system and league setup, and will then rank the players based on our projected stats, and proprietary X value calculation. So check back often. If you do decide to project your own stats, I highly recommend obtaining at least the last three years of positional stats sorted by total fantasy points based on your league scoring rules - as a tool. You then must consider a number of other factors, such as, but not limited to: coaching changes, player movement, NFL draft, player age, wear and tear, injury history, consistency (weekly and historically), contract status, role on the team, etc., before ultimately deciding what kind of numbers a player will put up in the coming year.

Perfect Projections?

There are no perfect projections, but some projections are better than others. Ideally, projections should be a weighted average of every possible 2007 statistical outcome based on probability -- for each player. I know that’s a mouthful. But let’s break it down – Ladanian Tomlinson had 2,323 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs in 2006. What are the odds that he does that again? - 20% chance? - 50% chance? Remember, this was the best fantasy performance in history! Because he’s LT, and he is that good, I’m putting a 10% weighting on him duplicating last year’s numbers – this is a “best case” scenario. Now let’s look at the next possible scenario: “5 year average”. Since 2002 Tomlinson has averaged 1588 rushing yds, 18 rushing TDs, 68 catches, 507 rec. yds, and 2 rec. TDs (not to mention 4 or 5 passing TDs that I can think of throughout his career). So what are the chances that he matches his 5 year average? I say as long as he stays healthy, I’m putting a 50% weighting on him attaining his 5 year average numbers. The 3^rd scenario I choose to include is the “worst case” scenario: A 25% decline in his 5 year average. It would look like this: 1571 total yards, 16 total TDs and 51 catches. LT would most likely have to miss games to put up those type of numbers, and he has yet to miss a game due to injury in his career – so you can look at it two different ways: either he’s due to miss a few games, or history indicates that he is extremely durable. I choose the latter; therefore I would only put a 10% weighting on this “worst case” scenario. The final scenario I choose to use is a 10% increase in his 5 year average stats. It would look like this: 2305 total yards, 20 total TDs and 75 catches. I think LT has a great shot of reaching those numbers this year (with the exception of the 75 catches), so I’m going to put a 30% weighting on him attaining those numbers. For simplicity sake, I am limiting the number of scenarios to 4. Based on the above scenarios, here is what we come up with for Ladanian Tomlinson’s 2007 projected stats: 2128 total yds, 21 TDs, 67 catches –not a bad year, definitely worthy of his number 1 overall position. That’s a lot of work to put in for 1 player’s projected stats, but that’s what we’re here for – we put in this kind of work on our projected stats so you don’t have to.

X Value Calculation

Step 2: Now that you have your projected stats, with total fantasy points calculated and sorted based on your league rules, we’re ready to solve for X. The traditional X Value calculation uses a “baseline” or “worst starter line” which equals the number of teams in your league multiplied by the number of starters at a given position. So, for a 12 team league that starts 3 WRs, the baseline would be the 36^th ranked WR. Basically, we want the worst “startable player” at a given position – usually 12 at QB, 24 at RB, 36 at WR and 12 at TE. Note: ffall-stars.com uses a slightly different baseline method – using a proprietary calculation. Let’s do an example using a baseline of 36. Since hind site is 20/20, we’ll look back at the 2006 season. In 2006 the 36^th ranked receiver in our sample league was Chris Chambers (who was drafted in most leagues last year as a top 15 WR – big disappointment). We’ll also use four previously mentioned players (Chad Johnson, Andre Johnson, Joey Galloway, and Eddie Kennison) for our example:

Standard Scoring 12 Team PPR League – starts 3 WRs

Subset of 2006 Final WR Rankings
Rk	Player	Team	G	Rec.	Yds	TD	FF Pts.	PPG	X Value
6	Chad Johnson	CIN	16	87	1370	7	266	17	115
10	Andre Johnson	HOU	16	103	1147	5	248	15	97
21	Joey Galloway	TB	16	62	1057	7	210	13	59
31	Eddie Kennison	KC	16	53	860	5	169	11	18
36	Chris Chambers	MIA	16	59	677	4	151	9	0

We can see from the above table that in 2006, Chad Johnson was the 6^th ranked WR, Andre Johnson was the 10^th ranked WR, Joey Galloway 21^st and Eddie Kennison 31^st, and we also know that Chris Chambers was the baseline receiver in our league. To calculate Chad Johnson’s X value, we simply subtract (our baseline) Chris Chamber’s total FF points (169) from CJ’s total FF points (266) – and…drum-roll… Chad Johnson’s X value last year was 115. Apply the same method to the other receivers and we come up with: Andre Johnson 97, Joey Galloway 59, and Eddie Kennison 18.

Step 3: Use the same calculations on your 2007 Projected Stats by position, with a QB baseline of 12, a RB baseline of 24, a WR baseline of 36, and a TE baseline of 12. To get overall rankings, list all players, regardless of position in one column, with their X values in a second column to the right. Select the entire range and sort ascending by X value. I think you’ll be surprised with the results. Come back to ffall-stars.com and see how you compare to our expert rankings – remember we use a slightly different calculation. Or you could just save yourself some time, use our X value rankings, and sit back, relax, make your picks and have a few cold ones with Vegas Pete come draft day!