The theory in football is that for the receiver position it usually takes a player 3 seasons to catch on and break out in the league. This usually about the point were you can start to label a player as bust or not. Players last year that broke out in their 3rd season were Braylon Edwards and Roddy White. Chris Henry had some success after he returned from his suspension. Roydell Williams had a decent season and did improve on his numbers. Receivers such as Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones and Mark Clayton all first round picks have all been busts so far in their careers. None show much or any promise prior to their 3rd season.

The 2006 NFL Draft class for receivers have had some breakout players that most people are well aware of. Players like Santonio Holmes, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, and Brandon Marshall have already had fantasy success early in their careers and all should go within the first few rounds. This class does have some star players, but overall doesn’t have much depth. Some like Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, and Devin Hester haven’t gotten much playing time due to injuries or inability to get on the field.

Jackson was much hyped coming into New England but has been plagued by knee injuries. With Donte’ Stallworth gone to Cleveland, Jackson will compete for that 3rd or 4th option for Tom Brady. If he can get healthy Jackson has huge upside and is a steal late in the draft or on the waiver wire.

Sinorice Moss doesn’t figure to be a factor this season for the Giants. They have Burress, Toomer, and second year guy Steve Smith who showed much promise as a rookie. Moss in undraftable at this point

Hester doesn’t have much experience as a receiver and is too raw to be a consistent receiver in the league. He does have the explosiveness and playmaking ability to get better and still warrants consideration as a late flyer in the final rounds.

A name to keep an eye on is Derek Hagan for Miami. Hagan has good size at 6’2 and should improve on his 29 catches for 373 yards and 2 TD’s. Most notably Hagan had a good game against Buffalo in week 14 with 8 catches for 93 yard. Hagan is not going to set the league on fire or break any records but he is a good value later in the draft and could be a #3 or #4 flex option for deep leagues if the 3rd year theory holds.