2007 Fantasy Football RB Rankings (Update 2) – 5/7/2007

What a difference a month makes! Four weeks, a few blockbuster trades, and an NFL Draft later, and the running back rankings, along with fantasy football itself, have been turned upside down. We now know where Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch will play this year and where they fall in the list, but what about Chris Henry and Brandon Jackson – do they make the top 32 after being drafted by RB hungry teams? Naturally, the big loser in the ranking is Chester Taylor, after the Vikings chose Adrian Peterson as the number 7 overall pick in the draft, but who are the big winners? Does Edge get a bump up after the Cards drafted a big body to anchor the line? Jamal Lewis is a happy man since Cleveland passed on AP, but how about Rasta Maroney? Is his value negatively affected after the Pats trade for Randy Moss - is there enough touches for everyone in NE? The answers to these questions and more are only a few inches away. The following rankings are based on standard scoring PPR leagues Behold the list:

(rk, prev rk, player, tm, comment)
1 (1) Ladanian Tomlinson, SD - No more Marty-ball, but Norv gets the most out of his RBs, just ask Frank Gore.
2 (2) Steven Jackson, STL - He did most of his damage last year without Orlando Pace, and 90 receptions!
3 (3) Larry Johnson, KC - Stud who needs another 400 carries this year. Potential to be #1.

Daunte Culpepper appears poised to have time to purify himself in the waters of Lake Minnetonka, as the Miami Dolphins are close to releasing the former Pro-Bowl quarterback. Culpepper, who destroyed his knee two seasons ago while playing for the Minnesota Vikings, played for a short time last season with the Dolphins. He is due $5.5 million next season, and it appears the Dolphins are not willing to pay that much for a mobile quarterback running on a leg that might fly off at any moment. That, as well as the fact that in the games he did play last season, he appeared to believe he was still throwing to Randy Moss instead of Wes Welker.

Stracke, you have Larry Johnson at #3, there is no way he puts up #3 numbers. Consider the following:

He carried the rock an obscene amount of times last year, there's now way he does that again. Less carries means less yards and TD chances.

Will Shields retired this year. That monster Offensive Line continues to diminish, and that only hurts Johnson's stock.

Last year Larry caught 44 passes, which isn't enough to bump him up in PPR leagues, AND Michael Bennett is poised to be the every day, third down back this year to limit Johnson's wear and tear, which actually bumps him down.

Overall, I've got Larry as a late first rounder, although I sure as hell don't want the third pick in the draft and him still be there.

LJ's goal for 2007: Make Goose Eat Crow

Goose, come on now, who are you going to take in place of LJ at the third pick? I’ll give you that the loss of Will Shields hurts LJ’s value slightly, which is why he’s at 3 instead of 2 in my rankings, but the best lineman the Chiefs have is Brian Waters and he’s still there. (BTW Brian Waters may be the best lineman in the league).

Michael Bennet?…I haven’t heard from him since 2002, and if you think Herm Edwards is going to give opposing defenses a break on third downs by putting him in there, you’re crazier than the guy who passes on LJ with the third pick!

Seriously, look at the numbers LJ put up last year – 1789 yds. rushing, 17 TDs, 41 rec. for 410 yds. receiving, 2 TDs - that’s 2199 yds. from scrimmage with 19 TDs; and that was with no receivers to keep defenses honest. With the addition of 1st round pick Dwayne Bowe, defenses won’t be able to key entirely on the run, (like they did when Sammie Parker was outside last year) which should allow LJ to make the most out of his opportunities.

I will agree with you that LJ won’t run the ball 416 times next year – probably around 350. Bennet may get a series or two a game to spell him, but the real boost in production I see from LJ is in the passing game; have you see this guy on screen plays – after the catch he runs angry!

I can easily see LJ catching 60 balls next year for 550-650 yds. and 4 TDs, and despite the limited touches in the running game, I think he capitalizes on his chances to the tune of 1725 rushing and 18 TDs.

You give me a back not named LT or SJax who can put up those kind of numbers. Until then, I’ll keep praying I’m batting cleanup while you’re on the clock with the 3rd pick!

Stracke, I think you've got Reggie Bush too low in those rankings, especially in PPR leagues. He could pull a Ladainian and haul in over 100 catches next year. I have a gut feeling that Deuce McAllister (who I am a fan of) will wear down this year, despite the limited reps. I see Bush in the end zone more often, too. This year he proves why he was the number one overall, er, I mean, number two overall pick (sorry Houston).

I put Bush as #4 or 5, definitely ahead of Willie Parker, and, to answer your question as to who I might take over Larry Johnson, Bush is one of them.

Going back to Larry for a moment, aren't you just a little concerned about this guy mentally being a ticking time bomb? Did you see last season's Inside the NFL feature on him? He had all the mental toughness of a 5 year old. In fact, that's how the coaching staff was treating him! During the segment they showed a game in which he wasn't getting holes and was getting stuffed in the backfield; the coaches had to coddle him like a child, as if they were afraid he might throw a tantrum and start turning over benches, dumping Gatorade jugs and retreating to the locker room to find his blankie. Mark my words, this guy at some point is gonna lose his temper, either on or off the field, and get dinged under the new NFL conduct policy. With the holes (or lack thereof) he'll be getting this season, it may happen sooner rather than later. We'll see how his fantasy stats look when he's out for 5 games in the middle of the season.

After the NFL draft and some off-season signings here is a list of the top 50 most coveted wide receivers for the 2007 season. May 21st

1) Chad Johnson,CIN- Led the league in receiving yards last year, look for him to improve on his touchdowns to double digits.
2) Steve Smith,CAR- Absolute beast who is a threat to take it for six on any play. Should regain his' 05 form and have a monster year.
3) Torry Holt, STL- Solid week in and week out. No reason to believe his production will drop off.
4) Reggie Wayne, IND- Is this the year he takes over as the #1 in Indy? Look for him to continue his progression as an elite wide out.
5) Marvin Harrison, IND- Will be turning 35 in August and seems inevitable his numbers will fade, but don't expect it to be this season.
6) Larry Fitzgerald, ARI- Look for him to rebound from after a somewhat disappointing '06 season.
7) Terrell Owens, DAL- Could be higher but you never know what can happen with this drama queen, just too much risk with him to be rated any higher.
8) Javon Walker, DEN- Love the promise QB Jay Cutler showed last season and Walker will be his go-to-guy.
9) Andre Johnson, HOU- Not sold on the overrated Matt Schaub, but Johnson is the only option and will continue to put up solid numbers.
10) Anquan Boldin, ARI- Tough player who will flourish under creative new coach Ken Whisenhunt’s offense.
11) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN- The only thing slowing him down from another great season is that rat tail he’s got coming out his helmet. Excellent #2 WR
12) Roy Williams, DET- Should be enough touches for everyone to go around, but needs to be more consistent on a weekly basis.
13) Marques Colston, NO- Not as high on him as others are, don’t be surprised if he hits the sophomore slump as team’s key on him more.
14) Randy Moss, NE- Stock immediately soared after the trade to get him out of Oakland. But can this 5 year old brat play well with others?
15) Lee Evans, BUF- Explosive playmaker and only threat in the Bill’s passing game. Needs better QB play out of J.P. Losman to maximize his potential.
16) Donald Driver, GB- Farve’s favorite target and has great speed and quickness.
17) Darrell Jackson, SF- Will be the #1 target for the progressing Alex Smith.
18) Plaxico Buress, NYG- Should get more looks while the running game takes a hit with Tiki retiring. Needs Eli to be more consistent.
19) Laveraneus Coles, NYJ- Look for him to have another solid season with the promising Jets.
20) Reggie Brown, PHI- Will have good season if brittle McNabb can stay healthy.
21) Santana Moss, WAS- Quarterback play should be more stable in Washington with Jason Campbell handling the duties.
22) Bernard Berrian, CHI- Hopefully Rex can shake the haters for Berrian to build on his success from last season.
23) Braylon Edwards, CLE- Showed what he was capable of in ’06 if he can stay healthy, look for him to improve on those stats.
24) Deion Branch, SEA- Will have much better numbers with the departure of Jackson to SF.
25) Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ- Had a breakout season last year, no reason to believe he will slow down.
26) Joey Galloway, TB- Garcia or Simms? Either way he will be the main target in Tampa and will get plenty of looks downfield.
27) Hines Ward, PIT- Big Ben’s health should not be in question this season, resulting in better year for Steelers and Ward.
28) Calvin Johnson, DET- Hard to rank him higher with Detroit’s recent draft history. However, will start from day 1 and get plenty of looks.
29) Santonio Holmes, PIT- Started to come along towards the end of his rookie season. Could have a breakout season in ’07.
30) Terry Glenn, DAL- The smaller headache in Dallas is still putting up solid numbers late in his career.
31) Mark Clayton, BAL
32) Greg Jennings, GB
33) Chris Chambers, MIA
34) Joe Horn, ATL
35) Donte’ Stallworth, NE
36) Isaac Bruce, STL
37) Vincent Jackson, SD
38) Anthony Gonzalez, IND
39) Robert Meachem, NO
40) Drew Bennett, STL
41) Derrick Mason, BAL
42) Dwayne Bowe, KC
43) Matt Jones, JAC
44) Mushin Muhammad, CHI
45) Dwayne Jarrett, CAR
46) Jerry Porter, OAK
47) Joe Jurevicius, CLE
48) Nate Burleson, SEA
49) Michael Clayton, TB
50) Brandon Jones, TEN

The thought of taking LJ in the third pick over Frank "The Tank" Gore is crazy. You both spew out numbers and reasons that sound real good but over look the answer. LJ is a stud no doubt about it, but look at where the Chiefs are heading. Some say up, I say down. The QB is crucial in this Biz. With speculation that Trent Green is already swimming with the fishes should turn your eyes to the 49ers. Alex Smith will be making strides and is certainly better that Damon Hooever. With suspect receivers and a freak TE, the rock will be advanced by the tank in the back field as well as in the air. Frank the Tank gets my pick due to the upside. Call Vegas and check the street, Vegas Pete is on the money $$.

Wide Receiver Sleepers
Here are a few wide receivers that you are going to want to keep an eye on that should be available in the later rounds. Some are rookies, others are some younger players who are a little under the radar and primed for a breakout season.

-Anthony Gonzalez, IND
-Greg Jennings, GB
-D.J. Hackett, SEA
-Devery Henderson, NO
-Brandon Jones, TEN
-Kevin Curtis, PHI
-Sydney Rice, MIN
-Maurice Stovall, TB
-Brandon Marshall, DEN
-Ashley Lelie, SF

Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings

What helps a wide receiver have success in their rookie season is a number of scenarios have to be right. The quarterback, the type of offense, how good the team is, and how much playing time they will get. Other than quarterback, wide receiver may be the most difficult position to come in and succeed as a rookie. Here are my rankings for rookie wide outs based on a standard scoring system.

1) Calvin Johnson, DET- Arguably the best WR prospect to ever come out of college. Has the ability to make a major impact right away. The problem is he was drafted by the Lions where they have a history of being the black hole for young offensive talent.
2) Anthony Gonzalez, IND- Perfect fit for Gonzo to come in and play the slot position right away. Should see a lot of single coverage, because of the focus teams will have to put on Wayne, Harrison, and the running game.
3) Robert Meachem, NO- Big and fast receiver who will greatly benefit from playing with Drew Brees.
4) Dwayne Jarrett, CAR- Should start from week 1 with the surprising release of fellow USC alumni Keyshawn Johnson. Will play with a chip on his shoulder after falling to round 2 in the draft.
5) Dwayne Bowe, KC- Reminds me of another LSU wide out Michael Clayton. Should play from start with the lack of competition in Kansas City. Will also benefit from the strength of the team’s running game and all-pro tight end.
6) Sydney Rice, MIN- Rice will get a lot of his looks inside the red zone as the Vikings will utilize his size and leaping ability for jumps balls.
7) Tedd Ginn Jr., MIA- A boom or bust pick. Would stay away from him until the later rounds as the quarterback situation is too unstable to take him any earlier.
8) Steve Smith, NYG- Polished route runner with good speed. Could have a good rookie season if the Giants offense can get on track.
9) Craig Davis, SD- A somewhat shocking selection the Chargers made to take him in the first round. Has big play ability with his speed and quickness. Don’t expect much out of him his first year.
10) Jason Hill, SF- The talk of the combine with his blazing speed. Could develop an early chemistry with Alex Smith.

Elijah Dukes, after being asked about allegedly texting a picture of a handgun to his wife and leaving a message which said "You dead dawg" (which could have been quote of the week by itself):

"I'm just going to play ball, that's it. I've got to go. I've got a video game to finish."

What's your guess on the game? I'd wager it's either Grand Theft Auto or, in light of the 5 children by 4 different women by the age of 22, perhaps there's a Shawn Kemp game I haven't heard of?

So now we know where the rookie falls in the 2007 NFL Draft. Detroit has taken another receiver, who would have thought. As a FF owner the question becomes, Do I draft Calvin Johnson for my team and when?

Depending on the type of league you are a part of, the answer is most likely YES! This 6’5 239lbs freak of nature is going to compliment Roy Williams and new found glory Mike Furry. A keeper league will most likely prove to cost you mounds of dollars due to the hype, however in a traditional league where do you draft him? Keep an eye on how the draft is proceeding and what the other owners are targeting. At the end of the day Calvin Johnson will prove to put up some serious numbers as a rookie no matter where you take him. Even with Williams and Furry he has the potential to start as #2 or even as the #1 as the season moves on. Kitna has the experience to spread the ball around, but will maintain a favorite target. Defenses have seen the tape on the two featured wide outs with Detroit. They have not seen much on this Stud. It’s better to have him on your team as he sets records as a rookie. Hype or not, he is the real deal! Do I dare to throw out the TO comparison or is it too early?

With all that is being said, nothing is being said as a negative. If you are planning on making it to the playoffs this year in your league. You better take a hard look at Calvin Johnson. Another VEGAS PETE prediction and you have heard it hear first. Calvin Johnson will be considered for rookie of the year.

Does he have the NUTS to take the title? I believe he does! You can take that to Vegas and bet on it.

There is a case to be made for either rookie on who you should take first. Lynch will be getting most of the carries himself in Buffalo, while Peterson will be splitting carries with Chester Taylor in Minnesota. If you are in a regular draft league or a keeper/dynasty league I would still value Peterson higher. It’s hard to imagine how Lynch could put up much better numbers than the recently departed McGahee did with the same bad offensive line. McGahee averaged less than 4 yards a carry for the past two seasons and had only 11 touchdowns combined. Think of who Peterson will be running behind on the left side; Bryant McKinnie at Tackle, Steve Hutchinson at guard, Matt Birk anchoring at center, and Tony Richardson leading the way at fullback. I see Peterson splitting carries for the first half of the season, but eventually taking over as the #1 back by mid-season. Peterson does have the injury concerns, but I am not overly concerned with that, as Lynch has character issues from his past. I am projecting Peterson to have a solid rookie year with his numbers to be around 1,200 total yards and 8 touchdowns and Lynch having a much tougher road in Buffalo until they can get a better o-line and supporting cast.

We conducted our first Mock Draft of the season last week, and the results were all over the place. From Steven Jackson going first overall (you heard it here first), to the two rookie RB's getting drafted two rounds before veteran runners Deuce McAllister and Jamal Lewis, we had some interesting results all around.

Click here for pick by pick analysis